Michigan State vs Duke preview and tips, where the winner will progress to the College Basketball Final Four.
Sunday March 31, 5:05pm @ Capital One Arena Washington, DC
In the only region in the Big Dance between the top two seeds in the East Region top-seed Duke takes on 2nd seed Michigan State with the winner heading to the Final Four.
Michigan State has had an impressive run to the Elite 8 winning all three of their games by double figures and they beat the region’s 3rd seed in LSU by 17 points in their last game.
The Spartans are a balanced team that has been solid on both sides of the floor in the tournament and have a defense that ranks 34th in the nation only giving up an average of 65.2 ppg.
The Spartans have to hold onto the rock in this game facing a pressuring Duke defense, as in the losses for MSU this season they averaged 15 turnovers a game.
While MSU has had a pretty easy time getting to the regional final Duke has not with two close games in a row. They beat Virginia Tech in their last game by two points and had to come back from a first half deficit.
One of the big questions for the Blue Devils in this game is if 3rd leading scorer Cam Reddish can play, as he is a question mark and missed the Virginia Tech game.
Michigan State Form
In their last game Michigan State beat LSU 80-63 where they scored 40 points in each half and outscored the Tigers by 12 points in the first half. They played well on both ends of the floor shooting 47% from the floor and holding LSU to 39.3%.
Four Spartans scored at least 12 points in the game led by Aaron Henry with 20 points and Cassius Winston went for 17 points.
Winston leads MSU averaging 18.8 ppg and after going for 26 points in the Big Dance opener he has totaled 30 points in the last two games. Second leading scorer Nick Ward (13.4 ppg) is dealing with a hand injury and has only averaged 7 ppg in the three tournament games.
Xavier Tillman (9.8 ppg) has stepped up in the Big Dance averaging 14 ppg and leading rebounder for the season Kenny Goins (8.1 ppg 9 rpg) has 28 rebounds in the three games and had 11 in the win over LSU.
Duke narrowly avoided another upset in their last game where they beat Virginia Tech 75-73. The Blue Devils shot a much better FG% (55.4% to 40.3%), but the game was close because they gave up 17 offensive rebounds and only pulled down eight.
Zion Williamson had another big game with 23 points and six rebounds, Tre Jones more than doubled his season average to go for 22 points and had eight assists, and RJ Barrett had a double-double with 18 points and 11 assists.
Williamson (22.6 ppg 8.7 rpg) is averaging 26.7 ppg in the tournament and he has shot at least 75% from the floor in two of the three games including the Virginia Tech one. RJ Barrett led the Blue Devils this season averaging 22.7 ppg and while he has totaled 34 points in the last two games he failed to shoot over 41.2% from the floor in both of them.
RJ Barrett is a game-time decision to play*
Michigan State vs Duke Betting Trends
- Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Michigan State is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games.
- Michigan State has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Duke is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
- Duke is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
- Duke has an Under record of 7-1-1 in their last 9 non-conference games.
Michigan State vs Duke Tips
Duke is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games facing Michigan State and they beat them last season 88-81 in a regular season game held at a neutral site.
While the Spartans have had a more impressive run in the Big Dance their tournament will end in this game. Williamson will not be stopped and while Duke will have another close game they will also win again as well as cover the spread.
Tip: Duke -1.5 (-110)